Pessimistiskt om Egypten och arabvärlden

Walid Shoebat tipsar om en artikel av Steven Simpson, The Arab Street Revolt and the Brotherhood: This Time It’s Different.

Några stycken:

"...now with the downfall of Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, it appears that the Ikhwan al-Muslimun (the Muslim Brotherhood) may soon find itself in power and alter the Arab/Muslim world – as well as the world at large—to the extent that the Iranian revolution of 1979 will seem like an isolated incident."

"While it is probably too early to prognosticate about Egypt’s future, it appears that at the end of the day, Egypt will either be ruled by the military, or an Islamist government—be it de facto or de jure. At this point, it appears that the Islamists—while not yet at the forefront of this “street revolution”—have the most to benefit. This is bad news for America, the West, and of course, Israel. Indeed, Israel may come out the biggest loser."

"...a “useful idiot” as Mohammed el-Baradei , an anti-American, anti-Israeli apologist for Iran’s nuclear weapons program may be the key to the Ikhwan’s [muslimska brödraskapet; min kommentar] dreams of ruling Egypt. Already, they have endorsed him. Iran’s Khomeini used a similar tactic with his first prime minister, Mehdi Bazargan , a respected liberal academic, and then after consolidating power, pushed him aside. With an Ikhwan controlled government, the peace treaty with Israel will no longer exist, perhaps leading to another all-out Arab-Israeli war with Iran in the forefront. The global implications of this nightmare scenario are only beginning to dawn."

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USA vill istället för ElBaradei se kunnige Omar Suleiman leda Egypten. Noterar bl a att han efterlyste förhandling med muslimska brödraskapet, men visst involverande av dem (har väl hittills skett via enskilda företrädare) är nog oundviklig politik.


DN/Reuters: Muslimska brödraskapet kräver nationell samlingsregering
DN om (optimistisk) WP-analys: Egypten efter Mubarak – tre tänkbara vägar
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Andra bloggar om: samhälle, politikislam, islamism, religion, muslimska brödraskapet, säkerhet, utrikespolitik, Mellanöstern, Egypten, Israel